Expected Trends in Major Food Commodity Prices for the Remainder of 2025

Strategic Supply Chains Partners tracks restaurant industry trends and collaborates with clients to

adapt to shifts in the economy, consumer preferences, and global supply chain challenges.

Forecasting and anticipating fluctuations in food commodity prices is vital for restaurants to

remain competitive and maintain profitability for the remainder of 2025.

Here is a summary of SSCP’s research, our projections and contributing factors influencing food

commodity prices for the duration of 2025:

Inflation is not Done:

Although food price inflation is slowing down, it is not disappearing entirely. The Consumer

Price Index (CPI) for food away from home increased 0.4% from May 2025 to June 2025 and

rose 3.8% compared to June 2024. This indicates restaurants will continue to face rising product

costs, although at a slower rate than recent years have seen.

Price Trends by Categories:

Price trends are anticipated to trend at varying rates depending on the specific category:

Eggs: Egg prices are anticipated to increase in the near term but may flatten or even fall later

in the year.

Beef and Veal: Prices are projected to increase by 3.2% the rest of 2025.

Pork: Prices are anticipated to increase by 1.2% for the remainder of the year.

Sugar and Sweets: Factors like higher global coffee prices and lower domestic citrus

production impacting orange juice are expected to cause prices to increase by 5.1% in 2025.

Nonalcoholic Beverages: Prices are predicted to increase by 4.1% in 2025.

Fresh Vegetables: Prices are projected to decrease by 2.0% in 2025.

Wheat: Prices at the farm-level are expected to decline at a slower rate in 2025, decreasing

by 7.9%.

Climate Impact:

Recent extreme weather events have led to an 80% increase in vegetable prices in California and

a 50% rise in olive oil prices in Europe. These trends will keep commodity prices unpredictable

through 2025.

Supply Chain Concerns:

Tariffs and trade disputes, especially with countries like Mexico and China, pose significant

challenges for the US agricultural sector. These issues lead to higher production costs, delays,

and market volatility. Additionally, labor shortages in agriculture and logistics further contribute

to increased costs and potential disruptions.

Strategies for Sourcing:

Restaurant operators must be flexible and take the initiative while navigating food commodity

pricing challenges. This can involve:

• Consolidating suppliers to reduce risk from spreadsheet buying and operating without a

distribution agreement.

• Exploring alternative ingredients as plant-based and lab-grown proteins gain traction.

• Leveraging technology like data analytics, AI-powered forecasting, and precision agriculture

tools to optimize inventory management, predict demand, and identify potential disruptions.

• Focusing on sustainability by reducing food waste, sourcing locally, and adopting

environmentally friendly packaging.

• The remainder of 2025 requires careful planning and strategic adjustments for restaurant

operators to thrive amid evolving food commodity prices and supply chain dynamics.

There are additional risks that small restaurants might face:

Rising Costs: Small restaurants are facing increased costs for food, utilities, and supplies, which

tightens margins and makes profitability challenging.

Labor Shortages: Staffing remains a significant challenge, with higher wages and enhanced

benefits needed to attract talent. Innovative retention strategies, such as cross-training and

flexible scheduling, are becoming more common.

Evolving Consumer Behaviors: With reduced foot traffic and fewer regular patrons, restaurants

are using sophisticated engagement strategies. Social media has become a primary tool for

marketing.

Regulatory Shifts: Changes in regulations can pose challenges for small restaurants, requiring

quick adaptation to new rules and compliance requirements.

Financial Strain: Consumer spending in 2025 is likely to tighten as household debt rises,

potentially curbing discretionary dining habits.

Strategic Supply Chain Partners are uniquely positioned to help small to mid-sized restaurant

operators to navigate these challenges. We work with distributors and manufacturers to ensure

our clients get equal or better product quality at equal or lower prices. SSCP has the capability to

impact multiple areas of any restaurant company’s P&L.

Contact us today about our latest savings opportunity that enhances employee benefits and saves employees and your company money.

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